Thursday, November 12, 2015
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Beating the Stats on Reoffending
Somewhere - never to be binned - there exists a risk assessment completed ahead of my parole hearing. OASys - Offender Assessment System - is the standard risk assessment tool used by Probation and Prison services. And it is utter cobblers.
It rests on an algorythm that analyses 8 pieces of biographical information. With a statistically sufficiently large group, it can be seen which biographical factors are best able to predict reoffending rates. For instance, the age of first imprisonment is a strong indicator.
The perceptive will have already noted two major problems. Firstly, the group who shares my particular biography must be tiny, if it exists at all. And secondly, resting on actuarial data means that OASys doesn't measure change. Attempts are made to address this by including clinical data - ie, staff opinions - but this subjectivity is itself fraught.
My OASys proffered the odds of my reoffending in the first two years at 53.4%. This number has always tickled me, because of that decimal point. Here we have two criminal justice agencies checking out their collective wits in favour of a mathematical model which claims to be able to predict human behaviour to two decimal places. That is risible on its face.
More problematically, the OASys Manual makes it crystal clear that these assessments are scores for the GROUP of people who share characteristics. It may well be that people with teenage convictions have higher reoffending rates. As a group. But to extrapolate from these group scores to individual risk is both statistical nonsense and very unethical. Because 53% of a GROUP with a shared characteristic reoffends does not mean each INDIVIDUAL in that group has a 53% reoffending risk.
So I have outperformed a flawed risk assessment tool that is improperly used to assess individual risk. I could feel prouder.
It rests on an algorythm that analyses 8 pieces of biographical information. With a statistically sufficiently large group, it can be seen which biographical factors are best able to predict reoffending rates. For instance, the age of first imprisonment is a strong indicator.
The perceptive will have already noted two major problems. Firstly, the group who shares my particular biography must be tiny, if it exists at all. And secondly, resting on actuarial data means that OASys doesn't measure change. Attempts are made to address this by including clinical data - ie, staff opinions - but this subjectivity is itself fraught.
My OASys proffered the odds of my reoffending in the first two years at 53.4%. This number has always tickled me, because of that decimal point. Here we have two criminal justice agencies checking out their collective wits in favour of a mathematical model which claims to be able to predict human behaviour to two decimal places. That is risible on its face.
More problematically, the OASys Manual makes it crystal clear that these assessments are scores for the GROUP of people who share characteristics. It may well be that people with teenage convictions have higher reoffending rates. As a group. But to extrapolate from these group scores to individual risk is both statistical nonsense and very unethical. Because 53% of a GROUP with a shared characteristic reoffends does not mean each INDIVIDUAL in that group has a 53% reoffending risk.
So I have outperformed a flawed risk assessment tool that is improperly used to assess individual risk. I could feel prouder.
Monday, October 5, 2015
Prison Smoking Ban
So. Let’s ban smoking in prisons.
Simple, innit? As ever with all things prison, it’s far more complicated.
Somehow these complexities are overlooked.
The sole reason I can uncover for this
policy is Health and Safety – the Prison Officers Association are complaining
about the foul air their members must inhale while in cells. Which are the only
places in prison where smoking remains permitted – even smoking in the open air
is usually prohibited (giving the lie to the health and safety rationale).
However, when the national smoking ban
was introduced several years ago, and smoking was restricted to cells in
prison, procedures were put in place to address this concern. Staff were meant
to give a heads-up shout to prisoners as staff were conducting daily
cell-checks, so that prisoners could air out the cells. Just to be very clear
on this point: procedures were put in place to address staff safety, but staff
have never used these procedures. There is no need for any member of staff to
enter a smoky cell – unless they allow it to happen. And they do. And in the
face of this lazy whine, a total ban on smoking in prisons is planned.
Unlike tobacco in the wider society,
tobacco in prison plays a huge role in prisoners’ lives. Tobacco isn't merely a
diversion. It is the default prisoner currency, the standard unit of trade that
all other commodities are valued against. As such, banning it would have the
same social effects as if Government suddenly banned the cash in your wallet or
purse. Sans tobacco, some other substance will become the default currency and
the only candidate is heroin.
There will, of course, be bits of
tobacco smuggled in. Realistically, though, tobacco is bulky and not very
smuggle-able. Especially when compared to the size and value of heroin. And the
main channel of getting tobacco from one side of the wall to the other will
invariably be prison staff – the very group that the Prison Service prefers to
think of as whiter than white.
With the current medium of exchange
prohibited, waves of disruption will flow through the social structure. Those
who "baroned" tobacco – burn, snout – will be worthless, their
ability to calm a stressed prison gone. In their place will rise, to a more
embedded level than currently, those who deal in the "powders". But
tobacco barons have always been a stabiliser, a bank, a bureaux de change, will
the flow of tobacco being largely consistent. Heroin, in contrast, leads to
some prisoners wielding undue influence – "powder power" – but
inconsistently. Supplies of drugs are far more uncertain and temporary, leaving
the suppliers in a shaky socioeconomic position and as such as likely to prompt
instability as anything else.
Tobacco is also used by the Prison
Service as an intelligence tool. Every Wing Manager has traditionally had a few
packets of tobacco to hand, to dish out to the passing casual informers. This
will now end. On a wider scale, by tracking tobacco purchases from the prison
shop – the "canteen" – managers have been able to discern economic
activity. This activity is often tied to broader prisoner activities and can
highlight the wheelers and dealers. A non-smoker buying lots of tobacco is
obviously "up to something"! Whether this oversight of prisoners’
economic activity has ever led to more substantial intelligence is unknown;
what is known is that this source of intelligence will now cease.
The practicalities of the ban are yet
to be made known, probably to be developed as this policy is rolled out. It
begins in Wales early next year. Whatever details are developed, all have to
face the reality that nicotine is one of the most addictive of substances and
prison is the last bastion of smokers. And 50,000 smokers deprived of their fix
will be a fearsome thing.
Obviously, the Healthcare departments
of each prison (now NHS run) should be stocking up on Nicotine Replacement
Therapies, such as patches. The problem with all of these poor substitutes is
that they have success rates lower than a rugby player with a lion on his
shirt. As for E-cigarettes; these would be a perfect medium. Alas, E-cigs
require chargers, which can also be used to charge illegal mobile phones. How
the Prison Service faces this challenge will be interesting. What will be
offered medically will be risible and not cull the cravings of the masses.
Banning tobacco, then, will have the
key consequences of instantly dismantling economic structures which have stood
for decades; will destabilise the social structure; reduce intelligence; tempt
staff to smuggle; and throw social power into the corrosive and unstable hands
of heroin dealers.
I can't think of a more damaging policy.
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Whither Prison Reform - Part 1
I begin with the proposition that "prison doesn't work". This obviously presupposes the purpose of prison – a debate in its own right. However, in terms of reoffending and cost, prison fails. No other enterprise in human history with a 60% failure rate would be allowed to continue unchallenged, yet we appear to be singularly content with this monstrous rate of reoffending. And footing the bill for that perpetual failure.
Firstly, we should squarely address the issue of who we imprison, and for what crimes. Only then does the utility and cost of imprisonment become stark. In this Part, I will highlight Remand and Women prisoners.
Remand Prisoners. Over 48,000 people are remanded into custody awaiting trial each year. At any given moment, there are around 12,000 Remands (14% of the prison population).
A full 60% of these people are remanded to prison having being charged with non violent crime. Ten percent are outright acquitted, and a further 15% (15,000 people a year) are convicted but given a non-custodial punishment.
With the average annual cost of detaining a prisoner being around £40k, that we are remanding into prison so many people charged with non violent crimes must be questioned.
And where do we keep these Remand prisoners in the gulag? The uninitiated may not appreciate the varied nature of prisons, with categories going from Category A – High Security – to Category D, Open prisons. It is a matter of historical practice that the Prison Service places all Remands into Category B prisons – meant to hold people who pose such a risk that their "escape must be made very difficult". And Cat Bs are extremely secure, with escapes being rare.
But why place all Remands in such secure prisons? Because there is a direct correlation between security category and cost. Cat A prisons are the most expensive, Cat D the cheapest. Why place Remands, most of whom have comitted a non violent crime, into such a secure and expensive environment as Category B prisons? A quarter of a century ago, the Woolf Report made the recommendation that the default security Category for Remands should be Category C. Cat C prisons cost a significant amount less to run.
The Prison Service has ignored the Woolf recommendation, trampled over common sense, and continues to imprison those charged with non violent crimes in extremely expensive and secure facilities. If Remands were made default Category C, then tens of millions of pounds would be saved. The waste of the 25 years since Woolf must run into hundreds of millions of pounds.
Women prisoners are another anomaly, making up some 5% of the prison population (just shy of 4,000). It is truly remarkable to note that fully 82% of women prisoners are imprisoned for non-violent crimes. Nearly half of them are sentenced for theft or handling stolen goods.
It must be asked, why are we throwing non-violent women into expensive and secure prisons? If the Corston Report were ever implemented, the reality is that the number of women prisoners could be reduced by some 80 or 90% - with a resulting saving of tens of millions.
In this first part of a series of posts I have made propositions which will save many many millions of pounds. In changing the structure of how Remand and Women prisoners are dealt with, whole prisons can be emptied, the social harms of imprisonment reduced, and the cost of the prison estate significantly reduced.
Thoughts please....
Reform - An Introduction
When even the Prime Minister suggests that the present shape of the prison system doesn't deliver and costs a fortune, then it could be believed that we are entering a period where the political machine may be open to significant penal reform.
This is not to over-state the possibilities, Reform can be argued for on several grounds, including utilitarian, ethical, and moral, none of which appear to be the force of our political masters. Rather, the political focus appears to be utilitarian and economic and I have focussed my thoughts around these issues. This is not to dismiss or forget the broader grounds for reform.
What follows is a series of blog posts which explore the current organisation and policies of HMPS and highlight the positive changes that could be adopted and whose outcomes would be a lower re-offending rate, fewer victims, and a very significant reduction in costs.
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
Prison Education
I'm in the Guardian re prison education. My cat sneaked into the pic...
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/aug/04/michael-gove-prison-education-justice-secretary-jail
Friday, June 5, 2015
Saturday, April 11, 2015
The Personal and The Political
If there is
one unmissable difference between liberty and confinement, it is the distance
between the individual and the State. Out in our daily lives, the State is hidden,
glimpsed fleetingly as traffic wardens flit by and police cars grace our rear
view mirrors. The State is there, in every corner of life, but it gives the
impression of being concealed behind the façade that is life.
I am used to
a more personal relationship with the State. Directly because of Ministerial
decisions, recommendations by the Parole Board that I move to Open prison prior
to release were overturned. Every moment of my existence was regimented and
regulated, the State being personified by some miserable bugger in size 9’s
slamming the cell door shut. Rarely in the “real world” do we have such
proximity to government.
A large
barrier to my forging any consistent relationship with the State, the gaping
hole in the idea of “citizen”, is the denial of the Vote. Ten years after the
Hirst judgement and government is still slithering around the issue like a
snake in a vat of KY. A government insisting I show slavish obedience to the
law whilst ignoring its own obligations is a matter which has, and always will,
rankle with me.
Yet here I
am, the new owner of a vote. And it came without any effort on my part. I haven’t
had to show that I’m intelligent, educated, moral, or even interested. Whether
I like it or not, I’m lumbered with the damn thing. And now I have to decide
how to wield this miniscule, temporary, power over our masters.
Turns out, I’m
voting….Tory!
Thursday, April 2, 2015
The O'Brien Show
The O’Brien
Show
On April 2nd
– today or yesterday, depending on my efficiency! – I appear on the new ITV O’Brien
Show. And I found the experience quite disturbing. Its made me angry enough to surmount my writers block, so silver linings
and all that.
The call
came in late last week. Would I care to pop along to Manchester to take part in
a debate on the new O’Brien Show. Hmm. Daytime ITV can be a bit of a bearpit,
but I googled James O’Brien and discovered that whilst he is a minor
controversialist, he has stood in on Newsnight as a presenter. Clearly not of
the Jeremy Kyle persuasion, I thought…
Standard
practice, train tickets arrived and I dragged myself to the station for the 8am
train heading Oop North. Four and a half hours. I arrived slightly frazzled.
Unlike any other media engagement, I was left standing in the rain in
Manchester for an hour awaiting a car to hoof me to the studio. Such is the
life of the part time media tart.
Arriving at
the media centre I was faced by what seemed to be a mix between an airport
lounge and a mental health outpatients clinic. I was searched and metal
detected. A first for any media engagement, but a loud clue that I missed. What
sort of show needs its guests and audience searched? One that is determined to
provoke conflict, perhaps…
Herded into
the studio, microphones attached – the process is like being ever so politely
indecently assaulted – then seated. Next to a woman who had lost three members
of her family to murder. And in front of another family of victims. The other
two ex cons were similarly placed. I had a sneaking feeling that all was not
going to go as smoothly as normal.
The headline
question we were dragged from all over the country was meant to be, does prison
work. What transpired was that each of us ex cons was berated by O’Brien for our
past crimes, with him egging on various victims to skewer us.
I talk about
my crime. I don’t shy from it. If id been invited along to talk about that,
then id still have turned up – and it would at least have been an honest
process. But to lure us in for our views and then use us to prod at victims who
have suffered appalling loss is pretty repugnant. But all standard for this
show. The ethics of using victims of crime to stir up heat for a tv show is, I suspect,
not a hot topic at production meetings.
The first ex
con was set upon. A young guy, ex drug dealer, he was seated next to a woman
who had lost a sibling to a drug overdose. The guy was piled into as if he was
responsible. Then he laid into Stinson Hunter, “the paedophile hunter”,
accusing him of being a vigilante and of responsibility for the suicide of an
alleged paedophile Stinson had provided the evidence against to the police, who
charged the guy.
Thursday, February 5, 2015
Media Tart Experience
The media tart experience
Whenever I have a camera pointed at me, I am aware of all the times I used to watch ex-cons on the telly. Often it was painfully frustrating – “tell them about X!” – and sometimes toe curlingly bad. When the little red light goes on, then, I am acutely aware that my harshest critics, the most important audience, is the one I never get to see or hear from – you guys inside. It is important that I do a good job for you, as best I am able.
I am not a spokesperson for prisoners. No one can claim that position and I’d quickly slap down anyone who claimed it. The best that any of us outside can do is try to reflect the pains of imprisonment, the concerns, to educate a wider audience. The longer we have been out, the harder that can become. Of course, I could be making a complete hash of it; I daresay someone will let me know!
The weird thing is, none of it phases me. My first media thing came a few weeks after my release. Channel 4 News with Jon Snow, responding to some silliness the Prime Minister had spewed. Evening primetime. Millions watching. My first glimpse into the world of telly! And its always a big deal. Not just because I somehow have to get to London and back from Somerset, but because if I screw it up then it gives people an excuse to slag off cons and ex cons even more than they do. Having gone through 13 parole hearings may have helped me develop a tolerance for pressure.
The process begins with an Email or phonecall from a producer. They explain the story and explore your views. If they think they can use you, the process rolls on. The news agenda is a fickle beast, though, and it is common to be told later in the day that the story had been dropped because something else more interesting had happened. There comes a point when the news agenda is settled, though, and the gig is definitely on.
Off to London I trekked, to find a car waiting for me at Paddington. I could get used to this… Whisked to the studio – I forget where! – and the Green Room. This is where guests sit around awaiting to be shoved into the studio. Channel 4 had the makeup artist in the corner, who faced one hell of a challenge. The night before I has fallen down the stairs face first, skinning a line from my chin to my forehead. I ended up with more makeup than Coco the Clown, although through the magic of TV none of this was obvious.
TV studios are strange. Some are actual sets. Some are merely concrete boxes with a couple of chairs; all the images, walls, etc are special effects. Its odd being told to look at a cross chalked on a concrete wall and told to pretend its another person. Channel 4 is pretty much how it looks on screen.
While I always know the topic being discussed, particular questions aren’t shared beforehand. This makes quick thinking essential. And a thoughtful use of language – swearing is a no-no! I think I’ve only been caught by surprise once, when I thought a co-guest, an ex copper, was advocating vigilante justice. I was all “Well I never, I’m appalled”, when what I’d usually say is “fecking muppet”…
Perhaps my best day was when Grayling announced his new horrible regime changes. Sixteen interviews around London, giving my opinion of our dear Minister. The highpoint was at Sky; I was leaving the studio as Grayling was entering. “I’ve just spent ten minutes in there giving you a kicking”, I told him. “That’s alright”, said Grayling, “I’m up next and I’ll return the favour…”
It’s been a busy couple of years. I’ve popped up on every channel and endless radio stations from here to Russia. But I don’t buy into much of it. I’m not called by the media out of kindness, and I know there is always another ex con round the corner who can become media flavour of the month. Perhaps Inside Time should take over the role, become the “go to” source for media interviews?
Courtesy of Inside Time Newspaper
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